Next generation space telescope in trouble

[UPDATE (6/3):  For those reaching this post via Tangled Bank #29, this is actually a brief follow-up post to the one I meant to submit, called "NASA cutting space science, too."  Sorry for the confusion.]

I apparently spoke too soon yesterday when I suggested that the next generation space telescope, the James Webb Space Telescope, was one of the few major NASA science initiatives still on track.

From Sky and Telescope magazine (via Space Politics): 

By far the worst problem for astronomers concerns the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), a 6.5-meter (256-inch) infrared observatory sometimes called Hubble's successor. It's a joint project of NASA, the European Space Agency, and the Canadian Space Agency. Various hurdles seem destined to delay its launch by at least a year, to no earlier than 2012, and threaten to increase the mission's cost by as much as $1 billion, to more than $3 billion. In response, NASA has asked the project to consider whether a 4-meter telescope with fewer scientific instruments could be flown instead. According to one astronomer on the Webb team, who asked to remain anonymous, "such an observatory would not be worth continuing with" because it wouldn't be able to compete scientifically with the next generation of giant ground-based telescopes except in a narrow range of infrared wavelengths. "None of us believe it'd save the required amount of money anyway."

At this point it's anybody's guess what will happen to Webb. If NASA can't scrounge enough extra money to continue the project in its current form, perhaps by taking it from another mission, outright cancellation is a very real possibility. "I don't know the technical and budget path we'll find," says senior project scientist John Mather (NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center), "but the JWST project management and science team are extremely determined to find a solution in working with our international partners and NASA Headquarters."

The Denver Rocky Mountain News has more:

"I'd say it is a crisis," said John Mather, project scientist for the telescope at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland.

"(NASA) headquarters just doesn't have any more money for us," Mather said. "Something's got to give, but we don't know what it's going to be."

Northrop Grumman recently informed NASA that the company and its subcontractors expect to spend $309 million more than planned, Mather said. In addition, the rocket that will launch the Webb telescope could cost more than expected.

Those and various other unforeseen increases bring the total overrun to about $1 billion, Mather said.

Small consolation that the JWST's problems don't appear to have much to do directly with NASA's new priorities, but with the old problem of cost overruns by contractors. 

Of course, when the exploration effort inevitably suffers similar or even worse cost overruns in the future, the money will be siphoned from NASA science.  The reverse clearly does not hold.  If NASA science projects overrun, they risk being cancelled entirely.

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