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January 25, 2006



Obama's odds are worse than we thought, we need to take that sleiousry. I'm not surprised Obama's odds are poor if the economy gets worse and Romney is the GOP candidate. Romney is a weak candidate, but not so weak as to be vulnerable to becoming the campaign issue himself, and bad economies tend to turn elections into referenda on he incumbents. Note that Silver also made Obama a heavy favorite if the economy improves and Perry is the candidate, not that Perry seems like a serious candidate any more, but if the GOP picks a crazy person, they're throwing away the election. Even Romney has a slog if the economy improves. I don't think any of that is shocking, just quantified.Maybe we should tell the Republicans they can run anybody and win, just to encourage their cockiness.

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