Amidst the premature euphoria about the upcoming mid-term election prevalent on many progressive blogs, Markos at Daily Kos, of all people, has some sensible words:
I'm getting a little nervous with people thinking we have any race this fall in the bag. While things look great for us right now, the election isn't right now. And if Republicans can do anything, it's close the deal. And quite frankly, we're not a sure thing anywhere.
We've got to pick up six seats for a majority [in the U.S. Senate], seven if we want to avoid a potential Lieberman blackmail situation (if he wins his race). We have to hold all of our own endangered seats (looking solid in MN, okay in MD, and iffy in NJ). Then, in the Republican-held competitive races left -- MO, MT, OH, PA, RI, TN, and VA -- all but one feature incumbents, always the hardest races to win. Incumbents rarely, rarely lose.
So those of you counting those chickens need to stop. All of you celebrating the imminent GOP collapse need to take a deep breath. We've got a long ways to go, and nothing in this cycle is in the bag. Nothing.
So no slacking. No premature celebrating. No heightened expectations.
There's a reason I'm pessimistic about our chances this year. It's because no has voted yet and nothing in this biz is ever guaranteed.
And in the House, the Washington Post says the GOP strategists fear they could lose at least 7 and up to 30 seats. Democrats need 15 more seats to take control of the House. The article adds:
In a sign that the political environment is getting worse for Republicans, political handicapper Charlie Cook now lists 25 GOP-held seats as a tossup -- seven more than before the Foley scandal broke Sept. 29. Stuart Rothenberg, a nonpartisan expert on House races, has raised to nine the number of GOP seats tilting Democratic or likely to switch hands.
25 tossups suggests a likely Dem takeover of 12 or 13 seats. That's not quite enough to toss the GOP out on its heels from that branch.
We've got a lot of work left to do.
And four more weeks to do it.