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June 07, 2008

End of an historic primary. Beginning of another historic campaign.

And with this, my self-imposed political "vacation" comes to an end and the campaign to make Barack Obama our next President begins.

Hillary Clinton ends historic race, strongly endorses Barack Obama

WASHINGTON — Putting an end to her campaign to be the first woman president, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton today enthusiastically endorsed her rival, Sen. Barack Obama, praising his determination and calling on her supporters to fight for his election.

...

"Life is too short, time is too precious, and the stakes are too high to dwell on what might have been," Clinton said. "We have to work together. And that is why I will work my heart out to make sure Sen. Obama is our next president. I hope and pray that all of you will join me in that effort."

...

Repeatedly throughout the speech, the New York senator highlighted the historic nature of her candidacy, the strongest run for the nomination of a major party by a female candidate. Making a reference to her vote total over the course of the campaign, Clinton said she hoped that she had made "18 million" cracks in the glass ceiling preventing women from becoming president. And she said she hoped she had made the path to the presidency a little easier for the next female candidate for president.

"You can so be proud that from now on it will be unremarkable for a woman to win primary state victories," Clinton said. "Unremarkable to have a woman in a close race to be our nominee. Unremarkable to think a woman could be president of the United States. And that is truly remarkable, my friends."

Clinton said that she would fight to lower barriers that women still faced.

"Like millions of women, I know there are still barriers and biases out there. I want to build an America that embraces the potential of every last one of us," she said.

...

"We all know this has been a tough fight but the Democratic Party is a family," Clinton said in the speech. "Today our paths have merged."

March 05, 2008

"Where were you all last time?"

The line of the night, from the precinct chair at our Democratic precinct convention (aka "caucus") last night, addressing the (guessing) 200 or so attendees in an elementary school cafeteria:

Where were you all last time we had one of these things, when we had like four people!

March 01, 2008

Three photos from the Obama rally last night

These are not the greatest images, but they are the best I managed to acquire from my distance and in the available lighting.  Obama's "Stand for Change" rally, February 29 2008, San Antonio TX:

Obama1Obama2



Obama3

Obama and Clinton both in San Antonio last night

A few days ago, I noticed that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were planning rallies in San Antonio for the weekend.  I was hoping to attend both of them -- after all, it is pretty rare that my state is involved in such a heated primary race between two stellar candidates.  Sadly, they managed to schedule both rallies for exactly the same time last night, but twenty miles apart.  My plans were foiled -- I had to pick one and only one.

Being a supporter of Obama's, I picked his rally, even though it was far less convenient.  The venue for Obama was the Verizon Wireless Amphitheater, far out on the northeast side.  Driving all the way across town at rush hour was not appealing, but the rarity of the moment won out, and I put up with it.

I was amazed at the number of volunteers helping out -- hawking t-shirts and buttons, handing out "tickets" and pens (the price of admission was your contact information), and, mostly, seeking to sign up additional volunteers.

I tried to get some pictures, but was not quite close enough to get decent ones.  Darn those big crowds!  The Express-News quotes a crowd size of about 8,000 people, and that strikes me as roughly correct.  It was by far the largest political rally I've been to -- perhaps too large to be an ideal rally, as it is difficult to fully engage those who are far away physically from the speakers and the candidate.  And I had no prayer of getting up close enough at the end to shake the candidate's hand, as I had managed to do at the John Kerry rally in March 2004 and the Bill Clinton rally for Ciro Rodriguez in 2006.

Still, it appears a good time was had by all.  I am sorry I won't be able to attend a Hillary Clinton rally, though.  Any chance she'll be back before Tuesday seems quite slim.  And at this point, I have to admit that I am ready for this primary season to be over after that. 

February 18, 2008

Obama, Chicago, and Harold Washington

My political roots are in the Chicago of the 1980s, the interregnum between the Mayor Daleys when racial politics threatened to tear apart the city.  National politics -- Reagan, Iran-Contra, etc -- flew at the edge of my political radar, but I was extremely attentive to the ongoing saga of Chicago city politics.  Harold Washington, Chicago's mayor from 1983 through 1987, was my first and strongest political icon.  I was, and remain, extremely proud that the very first vote I cast in my life was for his re-election in the mayoral campaign of 1987.  Washington's substantial victory that year -- after squeaking to victory in 1983 against a previously unknown Republican, whose late surge to near victory was driven by racist fears of a black mayor by much of the white population of Chicago -- represented to me the defeat of the forces of racial divisiveness.

My formative years under the spell of Harold Washington's anti-machine, reformist, and racially unifying administration may help explain my affinity towards Barack Obama, whose career began in that same place and time.  I was reminded of all this by a recent article in Salon by Edward McClelland, which is a very interesting look at Chicago's, and Harold Washington's, influence upon Obama during those years. 

Here is an excerpt:

Ironically, Chicago became the political capital of black America because it was so racist. For most of the 20th century, it was the most segregated city in America. Blacks used to have a saying: "In the South, the white man doesn't care how close you get, as long as you don't get too high; in the North, he doesn't care how high you get, as long as you don't get too close." During the Great Migration, the refugees who rode up from Mississippi on the Illinois Central Railroad were crowded into the Black Belt, the South Side ghetto portrayed in Richard Wright's "Native Son." Because the black population was so concentrated, white politicians couldn't gerrymander it out of a congressional seat. One of De Priest's successors, William Dawson, was the most powerful black politician in America. He helped boot out the predecessor to Mayor Richard J. Daley, the current mayor's father, who bossed Chicago from 1955 to 1976. In return, Daley's machine rewarded Dawson with control of the entire South Side.

The politician who truly set the stage for Obama's rise was also a South Side congressman: Harold Washington, who was elected mayor of Chicago in 1983, beating two white opponents in the Democratic primary -- incumbent Mayor Jane Byrne and future Mayor Richard M. Daley. In the general election, the difference between Washington and his Republican opponent was black and white -- and nothing else. When Washington campaigned at a church in a Polish neighborhood, he was greeted with the grafitto "Die, Nigger, Die."

In New York, Obama read about Washington's victory and wrote to City Hall, asking for a job. He never heard back, but he made it to Chicago just months after Washington took office. In his memoir "Dreams From My Father," he wrote about walking into a barbershop and seeing the new mayor's picture on the wall. (It's probably still there. To this day, Washington's image is as revered by South Side blacks as St. Anthony of Padua's is by Italian Catholics.) The old men, who'd suffered a lifetime of slights by white mayors, saw in Washington a sign that the black community had finally arrived as a citywide power. Blacks may have run things in their own neighborhoods, but they were still crammed into dreary housing projects, and they sent their children to overcrowded schools -- while white schools just across the color line sat half empty. And of course, the big political jobs -- the state's attorney, the County Board president, the mayor -- had always been controlled by the Irish.

"Before Harold," the barber said, "seemed like we'd always be second-class citizens."

After too many triple cheeseburgers and deep-dish pizzas, Washington dropped dead of a heart attack in his second term. But the confidence he instilled in black leaders became a permanent factor in Chicago politics. His success inspired Jesse Jackson to run for president in 1984, which in turn inspired Obama, who was impressed to see a black man on the same stage as Walter Mondale and Gary Hart. Washington also strengthened the community organizations in which Obama was cutting his teeth, says Ransom. Obama's Project Vote, which put him on the local political map, was a successor to the South Side voter registration drive that made Washington's election possible.

"Everybody owes something to Harold Washington, because that was something they never thought could happen," Ransom says. "If Harold can be mayor, what can't we do? Obama talks about the audacity of hope. That audacity has grown into the notion that a black man can be president of the United States."

Before Washington, a black Chicagoan pol's highest aspiration was U.S. representative. After Washington, it became senator, and finally, president. Plenty of other cities have had black mayors -- Detroit, Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, New York, Los Angeles, Cleveland, Baltimore -- but in none of those places have blacks achieved as much statewide political success. Chicago has two unique advantages, says political consultant Don Rose. First, it's in Cook County, which contains nearly half of Illinois' voters. Second, the local Democratic Party is a countywide organization. After Chicago's Carol Moseley Braun beat two white men to win the 1992 Democratic Senate primary, precinct captains in white Chicago neighborhoods and the suburbs whipped up votes for her in the general election.

"They had to go out and sell the black person to demonstrate that the party was still open," says Rose, who sees "direct links" from Washington to Moseley Braun to Obama.

"It was a hard-fought thing. If you use Harold Washington's election as the pivot point, what you begin to see is black politicians making challenges to the regular organizations, and then the organizations having to support them."

 

For much more on the the tumultuous, transformative, years of Harold Washington's tenure in Chicago, listen to a great program from Ira Glass' This American Life, that was first aired in 1997 on the 10th anniversary of Washington's death.

By the way, on that website, I learned that the Washington-Obama connection is embodied in David Axelrod, "a political advisor to Harold Washington during Washington's second mayoral race and who is also chief political and media advisor to Illinois Senator (and Presidential candidate) Barack Obama."

February 06, 2008

Super Tuesday -- difference in total votes less than half a percent

Not quite all the votes have been counted yet, but the vast majority have been (including 93% in California), so I decided to quickly tally up the total votes for Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama yesterday to see if either managed to satisfy my arbitrary criterion for a "winner".  Remember, that arbitrary criterion was a margin in the total number of votes of around 4%.

The results so far (8:40 AM CST), not including Alaska, which I only saw delegate totals for (but it's a small state so won't throw things off by too much):

Hillary Clinton   7.286 million votes
Barack Obama   7.242 million votes

That's a difference of 45,000 votes out of 14.5 million -- less than a third of a percent.

So Super Tuesday, the first near-national primary, was essentially a tie.

January 04, 2008

The Iowa effect

The hype surrounding the Iowa caucuses went from high to ridiculous last night.  It is even becoming hard for me to resist, particularly since my preferred candidate is the beneficiary.  Yet Obama supporters should not get overconfident, as many more, and much bigger states are still to come.  Things can easily end up very different than they appear right now.  I still believe the real decision point will be on Feb 5 and not before.  There is no reason for Edwards or Clinton supporters to even think of giving up before then, and not even reason to get discouraged.

With the much greater Democratic turnout than in any previous Iowa caucus, some of my concerns about the caucus system were alleviated.  Even still, the number of caucus voters was much smaller than the number of people who will be voting in November, and a small fraction of the total voting age population of the state. 

As Kevin Drum pointed out last night, "It's funny how sometimes you have to wait and see how you actually react to something to know how you're going to react to something."  In this sense, this first official voting of the primary season will likely end up very meaningful to many of us after all, in giving us a significant push towards or away from certain candidates.  It's impossible not to pay attention to that, as it happens inside our own heads. So I overstated things in my previous post.  The immediate results do not matter, but the effect they have on the rest of us is quite real and important.

In Drum's case, the effect seems to have -- temporarily, at least -- knocked him out of his long-held, vague anti-Obama attitude.  In my case, it confirmed that I am an Obama supporter -- a direction I had already been headed strongly in but hadn't fully arrived at.  It also helped me realize that I would be satisfied without Hillary Clinton as the nominee, and so am certainly not in her camp despite my positive feelings about her.

As for Edwards, I would be happy with him as the nominee, yet I feel Obama is a stronger candidate with a much higher upside for the long term.  So I am hoping to see Obama come out on top when the "real action" starts on February 5.

January 03, 2008

Iowa caucus is a meaningless straw poll. The real action is February 5.

The media and blogger hype surrounding the Iowa caucuses has been as great this year as I have ever seen it.  I find this troubling given how undemocratic the caucus process is, how few people participate, and how unrepresentative those people are of the country as a whole.

No matter who "wins" Iowa (as if getting less than 40% of the vote should even count as winning), we should pay little attention.  We should treat the Iowa caucus results as a curiosity, much like the similarly undemocratic and unrepresentative straw polls a few months back that no one even remembers now.

The real action is on February 5, when a large fraction of the country will have the chance to cast their votes for their party's nominee.

I say this as a nominally undecided Democratic voter who is now leaning towards Barack Obama, but with a soft spot for both John Edwards and Hillary Clinton.

December 21, 2007

Schmitt: The 'Theory of Change' Primary

Listening to and reading everyday political commentary, from newspapers to blogs to even such allegedly respectable sources as NPR and PBS' Newshour, I have frequently despaired at the lack of interesting insights from the talking heads. 

But then I saw this article at The American Prospect from Mark Schmitt -- "The 'Theory of Change' Primary" -- and my mood brightened.  And my 'undecided' status in the Dem primary wavered.

May 27, 2007

Three top GOP presidential candidates mislead and confuse

The three top contenders for the GOP nomination for President in 2008 are showing that they can no more be trusted to lead this country into an uncertain future than the man they seek to replace.  In their ambition, they seek to further mislead and confuse the American people about the dangers we face.

From the Boston Globe:

In the May 15 Republican debate in South Carolina, Senator John McCain of Arizona suggested that Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden would "follow us home" from Iraq -- a comment some viewers may have taken to mean that bin Laden was in Iraq, which he is not.

Former New York mayor Rudolph Guiliani asserted, in response to a question about Iraq, that "these people want to follow us here and they have followed us here. Fort Dix happened a week ago. "

However, none of the six people arrested for allegedly plotting to attack soldiers at Fort Dix in New Jersey were from Iraq.

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney identified numerous groups that he said have "come together" to try to bring down the United States, though specialists say few of the groups Romney cited have worked together and only some have threatened the United States.

McCain, Giuliani, Romney -- demonstrating how they are no better than Bush.  Bush's campaign of distortions to promote the Iraq War back in 2002 and early 2003 has led to the current disastrous situation in Iraq and greatly undermined our national security.  After more than four years with ever-worsening violence, it now looks like getting out of there as soon as possible is the only way to start to repair the damage that has been done.

And someone please remind Giuliani that Fort Dix never actually "happened" -- the plot was broken up before any innocent bystanders got hurt.  I wish the same could be said for Iraq.

June 2008

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