New York Times, Nov 3, 1980:
Reagan and Carter stand nearly even in last polls
Ronald Reagan and President Carter, their already close race tightened by their debate last Tuesday, appeared to be running about even in popular support with two days to go until the Presidential election.
...
Nationally, the Times/CBS News Poll gave Mr. Reagan 44 percent, Mr. Carter 43 percent and John B. Anderson 8 percent of the probable electorate, a measure of the 2,264 registered voters intereviewed that is weighted to reflect the likelihood of voting. Undecided voters who said they leaned toward a candidate were counted in the candidate's total.
The remaining 5 percent reported that they were still undecided, but these included mainly Democrats and independents, indicating the Mr. Carter would have a better chance than Mr. Reagan of picking up their support.
The final results were Reagan 51%, Carter 41%, Anderson 7%.
Obviously there are plenty of differences between the circumstances in 1980 and those today, but I do think 1980 is a good example of how inaccurate pre-election polls can be when there is an especially motivated electorate.
So don't trust the polls. GOTV, and we may all be pleasantly surprised next Tuesday night.
Or so I can hope, at least.
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