In the aftermath of the final of 30 Democratic victories/Republican defeats of the 2006 congressional elections, political pundits of all stripes have expressed their thoughts on the how and why of Ciro Rodriguez's surprisingly large victory.
- The San Antonio Express-News has a summary from yesterday, with emphasis on the unexpected Democratic lead amongst early voters.
- Express-News columnist Jaime Castillo calls the results, even given the anti-GOP political atmosphere they came admist, "the equivalent of a political earthquake."
- Texas Monthly's Paul Burka claims that criticism by some national Republicans of Bonilla's campaign is misguided, and that instead Bonilla was hurt by the nature of the district, in which he had no long-term future, his support for building a fence on the border, and the great campaign run by the DCCC in support of Rodriguez.
- Time magazine, relying heavily on quotes from "longtime Republican consultant and analyst" Royal Masset, suggests the reason Bonilla lost was immigration issues and Republican complacency.
- The Washington Post calls Ciro's election a "final rebuke" to Tom DeLay.
- The Hotline strongly implies that Bonilla's harsh stance on immigration issues did him in with many Latino voters.
- Houston Chronicle political writer R. G. Ratcliffe goes against the grain, saying that "the field may be fertile for Bonilla to try a comeback in 2008." I notice, though, that he says "try" rather than "make."
- National progressive political blogger Chris Bowers at MyDD, who had disparaged Rodriguez's chances of victory as late as mid-day election day, posted a "Glad to Be Wrong Thread" later that night. He then converts from over-pessimism to over-optimism, saying: "With Latinos making up [more] than 50% of the registered voters in this district, this one isn't going back to Republicans for a long time."
- Locally, Mike Thomas claims the decisive factor was the war in Iraq.
- Progressive blogger Charles Kuffner in Houston writes in Kuffsworld about several factors that contributed to Ciro's victory. In the end, though, he boils it down to this: "Plain and simple, the Democrats wanted this one more."
- Along those same lines, a pair of conservative bloggers at Right of Texas discuss reports of exceptionally low turnout in heavily Republican preceincts in Bexar County and says "Where were you people?!" Both apparently came from elsewhere in Texas to work for the Bonilla re-election campaign, and claim it was exceptionally well run. They heap praise on the operation, saying that it was a "tightly run ship," "very focused," "had a great contingency plan", and that the campaign manager was "an experienced war horse" and "had his stuff together."
After reading all this commentary and analysis, though, I think I may have fortuitously stumbled onto a major factor in Rodriguez's victory and Bonilla's defeat. The pair at 'Right of Texas' note that Bonilla's campaign manager is a former Washington state legislator and that much of the staff came from Minnesota. This might seem interesting but not particularly relevant--but then one of these two activists writes, "I was surprised by how incredibly Latino the district was."
And the final results suddenly make a little more sense.
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