The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has put our new congressman, Ciro Rodriguez, on their list of the 29 most endangered Democratic incumbents for 2008. This means that the DCCC will make sure that Ciro gets plenty of their support in the next election, to ensure that he can hold this seat.
Now, some local Republicans are already thinking about being the one to take him on next time. From Sunday's Express-News:
County Commissioner Lyle Larson said Friday he's seriously considering running in Congressional District 23 in 2008 — a clear sign that the aftershocks of last summer's court-ordered redistricting didn't end with Democrat Ciro Rodriguez's upset of Republican Henry Bonilla.
Despite Rodriguez's eight percentage point victory, Larson contends the district — which stretches from San Antonio to El Paso — remains winnable for the GOP, especially with the concentration of votes in his North Side stronghold.
"It looks like it's still a Republican district if you get the vote out," said Larson, the lone Republican on the Commissioners Court. "This is one that was lost that never should've been lost to the Democratic Party."
...
Richard Langlois, chairman of the Bexar County Republican Party, blamed the rout [Rodriguez's victory over Henry Bonilla in December] on GOP voters who stayed at home. He also said they'd likely turn out in droves in 2008 to oust Rodriguez.
This district is certainly competitive for the GOP if the right Republican joined the race. I doubt Larson is that person. He represents the highly Republican northwest part of Bexar County, Bonilla's old stronghold, and is far less well known. (For example, I have lived in this area for seven years and know essentially nothing about Larson.) As Larson is an anglo Republican from the wealthy part of town, I find it extremely doubtful he could gain significant support in heavily-Latino, economically disadvantaged, south Bexar County. And Bonilla, as a long-term incumbent, had many advantages that Larson, or another Republican, will not have in 2008. So, it is unlikely he could do much better than Bonilla could against Ciro Rodriguez, no matter how much northwest Bexar County GOPers would like to oust Rodriguez.
Still, we should not assume this district is a sure thing for Democrats in 2008. That attitude, on the part of the GOP, is what helped to spell Bonilla's demise last year. Fortunately, the DCCC has shown that they, at least, are not going to make that same mistake.
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