In the late 1990s, I lived in Hawaii for a few years, including a stretch where we lived at about 10 feet above sea level about 3 blocks from the sea. Hawaii is very tsunami-aware, from hard experience (in particular, a legendary 1946 tsunami killed over a hundred people), and Hawaii has warning sirens near the coasts in populated areas and has published maps of risk zones and evacuation information in the front of telephone books. Living there, it was impossible not to be aware of the risks.
Sadly, due to the rarity of tsunamis in the Indian Ocean region devastated over the weekend, that does not appear to have been the case in those places.
From the New York Times:
HONOLULU, Dec. 27 - When experts at the Pacific Tsunami Warning
Center in Honolulu were first alerted that an earthquake had struck
Sunday off Indonesia, they had no way of knowing that it had generated
a devastating tsunami and no way to warn the people most likely to
suffer.
Tsunamis are rare in the Indian Ocean, which has no
system for detecting them and alerting those in danger, and scientists
do not have the tools to tell when an earthquake has created one.
Not
until the deadly wave hit Sri Lanka and the scientists in Honolulu saw
news reports of the damage there did they recognize what was happening.
"Then we knew there was something moving across the Indian Ocean," said Dr. Charles McCreery, the center's director.
"We
wanted to try to do something, but without a plan in place then, it was
not an effective way to issue a warning, or to have it acted upon," Dr.
McCreery said. "There would have still been some time - not a lot of
time, but some time - if there was something that could be done in
Madagascar, or on the coast of Africa."
...
The first notice of the earthquake that
anyone at the Pacific tsunami center received was a computer-generated
page set off by seismic sensors at 2:59 p.m. on Saturday Honolulu time.
The immediate message received by people like Laura S. L. Kong, a
Department of Commerce expert who is the head of a United Nations
tsunami education center in Hawaii, included the time of the quake,
latitude, longitude and an initial estimate of magnitude, about 8.0.
Nobody
was in the office of the Pacific tsunami center. But staff members who
received the pages reached the office, took a closer look at available
data and sent out a warning to a preset list of contacts around the
Pacific.
The center was advising of sea level changes in Fiji,
Chile and California measured in inches, the echo of a distant event
that had sloshed through the straits that connect the oceans. The
warning center continued to refine its estimate of the quake,
eventually raising it to a magnitude of 9.0, which is 10 times more
powerful than the initial estimate of 8.0, because the scale is
logarithmic.
The Pacific center, operated by the National
Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, faced two problems in
recognizing what was occurring in the Indian Ocean and alerting
potential victims. There is no direct connection between an earthquake
magnitude and a resulting tsunami. Not all quakes under the ocean lift
the ocean floor to displace the water needed to create a tsunami.
For
the Pacific, there are computer models to analyze the consequences of
an earthquake, based on years of observations of previous quakes and
tsunamis. For the Indian Ocean, there are no such models, according to
Vasily V. Titov, a research oceanographer with the Oceanographic and
Atmospheric Administration, based in Seattle. "They assemble quite a
bit of data to get the right information and the right warning
message," he said of such models.
Another difficulty is that
countries that have experienced tsunamis in recent memory are set up
with warning systems. Hawaii, for example, has warning sirens, and the
"weather radio" network of oceanographic administration can also carry
tsunami warnings.
...
"Based
on it being an 8.0, we assumed the damage would be confined to Sumatra
and would be a local tsunami event, one that strikes shore within
minutes of the event," he said. "We weren't overly concerned at that
point that it was something larger."
But using another,
sometimes more accurate method of measuring, Dr. McCreery said, the
staff quickly determined that the magnitude had been closer to 8.5,
more intense, but still only borderline for generating more distant
damage. The center issued a follow-up bulletin.
But it was not until they saw news reports of casualties in Sri Lanka that all that changed.
...
One of the few places in the
Indian Ocean that got the message of the quake was Diego Garcia, a
speck of an island with a United States Navy base, because the Pacific
warning center's contact list includes the Navy. Finding the
appropriate people in Sri Lanka or India was harder.
The experts
knew they were set up for the wrong ocean, but over a holiday weekend,
Dr. Kong said, "it's tough to find contact information."
Mark Kleiman comes through with a common-sense suggestion:
But if you're an American seismologist and your problem is to get a
tsunami warning to folks in Sri Lanka, India, and Burma within a couple
of hours, surely calling people in those countries and hoping that the
governments will be able to improvise a warning system must be the
wrong way to go.
Why not call CNN, the Associated Press, and Reuters? They're in the
business of putting out information, and they put it out in a way that
gets directly to senior public officials as well as to lots of ordinary
folks who might live on, or have friends or relatives on, the relevant
coastlines.
I promise you, a phone call from the International Tsunami
Information Center saying "There's just been a Richter 9.0 quake in
Sumatra and a big tsunami will hit the following places at the
following times" will receive the undivided attention of any newsdesk
in the world.
If you want to put a system in place, put it in place with the news
organizations, so you have the direct-line phone numbers of the
assignment desks and can send out an authenticated e-mail showing it's
not a hoax. And the media process builds in redundancy; if CNN or AP or
Reuters carries a big, breaking story, the others will have it within
minutes.
[Or skip all that and just phone it in to Drudge with a hint that
the earthquake was Kerry's fault. That's the fastest way to get a story
out, true or false.]
Yes, it would be better to have an intergovernmental system in place
as well. But that will take months. The news-media system could be up
and running in a week.
One (slight) problem I see with Kleiman's suggestion is that, without the monitors in place, no one knows for sure if a tsunami has actually been generated, so no one can actually say "a big tsunami will hit the following places." But still, it seems prudent to use such a system in the meantime, perhaps by issuing alerts like "tsunami watches," comparable to "tornado watches."
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